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[공지] 구글 선정 세계 최고 미래학자 토마스 프레이와 4차 산업혁명 시대 미래 일자리를 논하다   2017-09-28 (목) 13:57
MD매니저   789




구글 선정 세계 최고 미래학자 토마스 프레이와 4차 산업혁명 시대 미래 일자리를 논하다


- 4차 산업혁명 시대, 세계적 미래학자 토마스 프레이와의 만남
- 『에피파니 Z』를 통해 보는 Z(ephipany Z) 통찰

지난 9월 14일 유엔미래포럼(한국대표 박영숙, www.korea2050.net)이 주최하고 글로벌미래교육원(대표 조용호, www.miraeedu.com)이 주관한 ‘4차 산업혁명 시대 미래일자리 대예측’ 강연이 열렸다. 이번 강연의 연사이자 구글이 선정한 세계 최고의 미래학자인 토마스 프레이(Thomas Frey)박사를 이준호 월간 DI(디지털 인사이트) CSO(최고시너지책임자) 소장이 특별 인터뷰를 진행했다. 현재 프레이 박사는 다빈치연구소와 FuturistSpeaker.com을 운영 중이다.

정리. 김다윤 기자




좌측부터 허성희 한국북네트웍스연구소 대표, 토마스프레이 다빈치연구소 소장, 이준호 MIR마케팅혁신연구소 소장, 윤기창 한국퍼스널브랜딩연구소 소장.

이렇게 만나게 돼 영광이다. 우선은 본 강연 때 해소하지 못했던 몇 가지 궁금한 점을 묻고 싶다.
4차 산업혁명 시대, 과연 우리에게 기회가 될 수 있을까.

일단 미래에 파괴력을 갖는 8개 산업군을 알아야 할 필요가 있다. 그 산업군은 바로 무인자동차, 비행 드론, 3D프린터, 컨튜어 크래프팅, 빅데이터, 인공지능(AI), 트릴리온 센서 무브먼트, 로봇 등의 산업분야다. 이 8개 산업기술 중 가장 파괴적인 기술은 무인기술이며, 그다음으로는 드론기술과 3D프린터 기술이다. 결과적으로 이 3가지 기술로 인해 없어지는 직업군은 물론, 새롭게 창출되는 창직(창조적인직업)군이 굉장히 많을 것이다.
하지만, 분명한 건 일자리 전환과정 안에서 자동화를 통해 일자리의 실제 존재를 없애는 것이 아니라 Task(업무)가 줄어드는 것이며, 이를 통해 새로운 기회가 생성되는 것이다. 이는 미래에 파괴적인 혁신(Disruptive Innovation)보다 촉매 역할을 하는 혁신(Catalytic Innovation)이 더 중요하다는 것을 의미한다.


혹시 이러한 일자리에 관련한 구체적이고 객관적인 연구 결과가 있다면.

구체적인 사례로는 옥스퍼드 대학에서 100여 개의 일자리 연구를 진행했고, 그 결과 향후 47%의 일자리가 곧 사라진다는 연구결과가 나왔다. 이미 기존 글로벌 기업들은 하향곡선에 접어들었으며, 미래에는 메가 프로젝트가 넘치게 될 것이고 이로 인해 새로운 일거리가 대거 발생하리라 예측한다. 예를 들어 무인기술로 인해 자동차 상해(피해)가 줄면서 연간 5,000억 달러(한화 약 564조 원) 이상의 의료 보건비가 줄어들 것이며, 수조 개의 센서를 연결한 트릴리온 센서 무브먼트가 작동하는 미래로 진입하게 될 것이다. 이는 데이터와 정보를 인사이트로 바꾸는 것이 궁극적인 목표라고 할 수 있겠다.
또한, 2020년까지 500억 개 이상의 사물이 인터넷에 연결되는 사물 인터넷과 1,000개 이상의 새로운 산업을 창출할 3D프린팅, 가상현실(VR), 인공지능(AI) 등이 미래에 파괴력을 갖는 8개의 미래 산업군을 주시해야 할 것이다.


교육 업계에서도 같은 맥락의 이슈가 있다면 무엇일까.

교육분야에서는 3개월(11주~13주) 단위의 마이크로 칼리지 과정(초단기 교육과정)이 나올 것으로 예측한다. 이뿐만 아니라, 다빈치연구소에서는 앞으로 대학 교육의 절반 이상이 사라질 것으로 보고 있다. 또, 우리는 3개월 단위의 마이크로 칼리지 코스를 개발, 운영 교육을 진행중이다.


그렇다면, 고등학교 1학년 학생이 대학을 들어가지 않고 IT 콘텐츠과를 가서 취업하는 것에 대해서는 어떻게 생각하는가?

이미 대학교의 4~6년 교육이 뒤처지기 시작했고, 이는 변화에 빨리 적응하지 못하는 현실로 보인다. 앞으로 AI로부터 학습을 하게 된다면 약 10배 이상의 효과를 경험하게 될 것으로 기대한다. 또, 세계를 선도할 기술 기업 중에는 ‘교육기업’이 세계 1위 기업으로 나올 수도 있다고 생각한다. 여기에 대학 미래 혁명의 청사진을 그려보게 되는 것 같다. 등가요소(과정이나 프로그램), 대학 학위와 동등한 것, 대학 학위보다 가치 있는 것, 미래 신분의 상징과 같은 4가지 항목들이 대학에 진학하지 않는다고 해서 배우지 않는 것이 아니라는 것? 사실은 정반대다. 학습은 성공으로 향하는 모든 길에 꼭 필요한 요소인 건 분명하다. 다만, 대학에 진학하지 않을 경우 덜 형식적인 학습과정을 거치는 것뿐. 


박사님의 이번 신간 서적인 『에피파니 Z』에 대해 듣고 싶다.

Z 통찰(ephipany Z)로 미래의 로드맵을 설계하라고 당부한 책의 제목처럼 에피파니는 1월 6일 공현 대축일을 지칭하는 단어로 동방박사들이 아기 예수를 만나러 베들레헴을 찾은 것을 기리는 축일을 뜻한다.
최근에 가장 큰 통찰력으로 얻은 것이 있다면, 기존 무어의 법칙의 물리적인 세상은 10년마다 2배의 성장을 해왔지만, 디지털 무어 법칙의 발전 속도는 10년이면 32배의 속도로 발전할 수 있다. 『에피파니 Z』에는 12가지 미래의 법칙, 과학이나 종교가 담을 수 없는 10가지 질문을 포함해 ‘학위는 내가 누구이며 무엇을 배웠는지 측정하는 도구가 아니다’라는 내용까지도 포함하고 있다. 또, 교육프로그램의 재분배 비율들은 혁신적이고 창조적인 발상들이며 현실적인 대안들로 가득하다.


엉뚱한 질문일 수 있지만, 마지막으로 박사님의 종교나 영적인 관점이 궁금하다.

나는 과학자이기 때문에 답할 수 없다(웃음). 너무 딱딱해도 이해해주길 바란다.


그렇다면, 좀 더 진부한 질문을 해보겠다. 앞으로 몇 살까지 살고 싶은가.

전에 한 질문보다 신선한 질문임이 분명하다(웃음). 영생하고 싶다. 그 이유가 있다면 줄기세포, 장기이식 등이 가능한 시대가 열리고 있으므로 충분히 가능한 일이라고 생각하기 때문이다.
또, 마지막으로 전하고 싶은 말은 미래는 현재가 창조하는 것이며 우리가 함께 만드는 것이라는 것을 기억해 줬으면 한다. 

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karina 19-09-18 10:22
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baishuang17 19-09-19 20:12
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thelma 19-12-01 15:06
답변 삭제  
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http://www.nikeschuheairmax.de/ Schuhe Nike
http://www.skechersoutletcanada.ca/ Skechers Boots
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http://www.yeezyboost350.fr/ Yeezy Boost 350 V2
http://www.supremehoodie.org.uk/ Supreme New York
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